000169341 001__ 169341
000169341 005__ 20260225105429.0
000169341 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.3390/su18031162
000169341 0248_ $$2sideral$$a148309
000169341 037__ $$aART-2026-148309
000169341 041__ $$aeng
000169341 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-5282-1930$$aEsteban Rodríguez, Samuel$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000169341 245__ $$aSettlement model and state-induced demographic trap: hybrid warfare scenario and territorial transmutation in spain
000169341 260__ $$c2026
000169341 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000169341 5203_ $$aThis study investigates the demographic transformation of Spain’s settlement system from 2000 to the present, driven by intersecting forces of rural depopulation, metropolitan concentration, immigration, and welfare-state dynamics. Building on an integrated theoretical framework that combines Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, demographic accounting, territorial carrying capacity, and spatial centrality, the research aims to (1) identify the mechanisms governing population redistribution across Spanish municipalities, and (2) simulate future demographic trajectories under current policy regimes. Key findings reveal that all net population growth since 2000 stems exclusively from immigration and its demographic sequelae, while the native Spanish cohort has experienced a net decline of 5.5 million due to negative natural change. The analysis further uncovers a self-reinforcing “demographic trap,” wherein welfare eligibility tied to household size incentivizes higher fertility among economically vulnerable immigrant groups, even as native families delay childbearing due to economic precarity. These dynamics are accelerating a process of “territorial transmutation,” projected to culminate in a shift in de facto governance by 2045. The study concludes that immigration alone cannot reverse rural depopulation or ensure fiscal sustainability without structural reforms to welfare design, territorial incentives, and demographic foresight.
000169341 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es
000169341 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000169341 700__ $$aLiu, Zhaoyang
000169341 700__ $$aNogueira Silva, Júlia María
000169341 7102_ $$13006$$2435$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Geografía Humana
000169341 773__ $$g18, 3 (2026), 1162 [20 pp.]$$pSustainability (Basel)$$tSustainability (Switzerland)$$x2071-1050
000169341 8564_ $$s357705$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/169341/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000169341 8564_ $$s2501308$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/169341/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000169341 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:169341$$particulos$$pdriver
000169341 951__ $$a2026-02-24-14:47:06
000169341 980__ $$aARTICLE