169341 20260225105429.0 doi 10.3390/su18031162 sideral 148309 ART-2026-148309 eng Esteban Rodríguez, Samuel Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-5282-1930 Settlement model and state-induced demographic trap: hybrid warfare scenario and territorial transmutation in spain 2026 This study investigates the demographic transformation of Spain’s settlement system from 2000 to the present, driven by intersecting forces of rural depopulation, metropolitan concentration, immigration, and welfare-state dynamics. Building on an integrated theoretical framework that combines Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, demographic accounting, territorial carrying capacity, and spatial centrality, the research aims to (1) identify the mechanisms governing population redistribution across Spanish municipalities, and (2) simulate future demographic trajectories under current policy regimes. Key findings reveal that all net population growth since 2000 stems exclusively from immigration and its demographic sequelae, while the native Spanish cohort has experienced a net decline of 5.5 million due to negative natural change. The analysis further uncovers a self-reinforcing “demographic trap,” wherein welfare eligibility tied to household size incentivizes higher fertility among economically vulnerable immigrant groups, even as native families delay childbearing due to economic precarity. These dynamics are accelerating a process of “territorial transmutation,” projected to culminate in a shift in de facto governance by 2045. The study concludes that immigration alone cannot reverse rural depopulation or ensure fiscal sustainability without structural reforms to welfare design, territorial incentives, and demographic foresight. Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Liu, Zhaoyang Nogueira Silva, Júlia María 3006 435 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Geografía Humana 18, 3 (2026), 1162 [20 pp.] Sustainability (Basel) Sustainability (Switzerland) 2071-1050 357705 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/169341/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 2501308 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/169341/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:169341 articulos driver 2026-02-24-14:47:06 ARTICLE