000169947 001__ 169947 000169947 005__ 20260306154908.0 000169947 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1371/journal.pclm.0000808 000169947 0248_ $$2sideral$$a148487 000169947 037__ $$aART-2026-148487 000169947 041__ $$aeng 000169947 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-6609-4247$$aGadea Rivas, María Dolores$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000169947 245__ $$aRegional heterogeneity and warming dominance in the United States 000169947 260__ $$c2026 000169947 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000169947 5203_ $$aClimate change exhibits substantial variability across both space and time, requiring mitigation and adaptation strategies that effectively address challenges at global and local scales. Accurately capturing this variability is essential for assessing climate impacts, attributing underlying causes, and formulating effective policies. This study introduces simple yet robust quantitative methods to detect local warming, distinguish among different types of warming, and compare warming trends across contiguous U.S. states using the concept of warming dominance. In contrast to traditional approaches that focus solely on average temperatures, our analysis rigorously and systematically examines the entire distribution of daily temperatures for the contiguous United States from 1950 to 2021. The results reveal that, while 44% of states show no statistically significant warming based on average temperature trends, a much larger proportion—84%—exhibit warming when assessing various quantiles of the distribution. Statistical significance is evaluated using HAC-robusttests at the 5% significance level (95% confidence), ensuring that detected warming reflects genuine shifts rather than random variability. These findings underscore the substantial heterogeneity in warming patterns: some states, such as those located in the so-called “Warming Hole,” display no evidence of warming at any quantile; others experience more pronounced warming in either the lower or upper tails of the temperature distribution; and a few states show consistent warming across all quantiles. The study concludes by identifying which states exhibit warming dominance over others and which appear comparatively less affected. These insights are particularly important in the United States, where climate policy is formulated and implemented at both federal and state levels. 000169947 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/LMP71-18$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-114646RB-C44$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2023-150095NB-C44$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EUR/MICINN/TED2021-129784B-I00 000169947 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es 000169947 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000169947 700__ $$aGonzalo, Jesús 000169947 7102_ $$14014$$2225$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Economía Aplicada$$cÁrea Economía Aplicada 000169947 773__ $$g5, 2 (2026), e0000808 [27 pp.]$$tPLOS climate 000169947 8564_ $$s18651902$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/169947/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000169947 8564_ $$s2287859$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/169947/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000169947 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:169947$$particulos$$pdriver 000169947 951__ $$a2026-03-06-14:51:05 000169947 980__ $$aARTICLE