000170927 001__ 170927 000170927 005__ 20260430151735.0 000170927 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1002/joc.70393 000170927 0248_ $$2sideral$$a149006 000170927 037__ $$aART-2026-149006 000170927 041__ $$aeng 000170927 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-2892-518X$$aVicente-Serrano, S. M. 000170927 245__ $$aNon‐Stationary Dry‐Spell Hazard Probabilities for Spain 000170927 260__ $$c2026 000170927 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000170927 5203_ $$aThis study provides a comprehensive assessment of long‐term changes in dry‐spell dynamics across Spain for the period 1961–2024, using both classical non‐parametric methods and a novel non‐stationary probabilistic framework applied to exceedance series of dry‐spell durations. Using daily precipitation data from a dense network of quality‐controlled stations, dry‐spells were identified based on four thresholds (0.1, 1, 5, and 10 mm) to characterize their duration statistics, and generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs) were fitted under both stationary and non‐stationary specifications. A systematic percentile‐based evaluation was performed to determine optimal exceedance thresholds, and a bootstrap‐based significance test was applied to compare stationary and non‐stationary return levels. Complementary analyses examined trends in annual frequency, mean duration, and maximum dry‐spell length. Results consistently reveal that dry‐spell behaviour across Spain is dominantly stationary. Only a very small fraction of stations show significant non‐stationary effects in the GPD location parameter, whereas non‐stationary scale, shape, or full‐parameter models provide no robust improvement and introduce substantial uncertainty. Traditional trend analyses corroborate this finding: most stations (> 70%–85%, depending on threshold) exhibit no statistically significant changes in dry‐spell frequency, mean duration, or maximum duration. Spatial patterns of change are weak, and return levels associated with long recurrence periods (e.g., 50 years) remain highly stable throughout 1961–2024. Overall, these results support long‐term stationarity in the probability of extreme dry‐spells across Spain. 000170927 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2022-137244OB-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2024-155515NB-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EUR/MICINN/TED2021-129152B-C41$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EUR/MICINN/TED2021-129152B-C43 000170927 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc-nd$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es 000170927 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000170927 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-3974-2947$$aBeguería, S. 000170927 700__ $$aRoyo, A. 000170927 700__ $$aEl Kenawy, A. 000170927 700__ $$aFranquesa, M. 000170927 700__ $$aHalifa-Marin, A. 000170927 700__ $$aAdell-Michavila, M. 000170927 700__ $$aCrespillo, A. 000170927 700__ $$aPérez-Pajuelo, D. 000170927 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-3085-7040$$aDomínguez-Castro, F. 000170927 700__ $$aAzorin-Molina, C. 000170927 700__ $$aGimeno, L. 000170927 700__ $$aNieto, R. 000170927 700__ $$aGimeno-Sotelo, L. 000170927 773__ $$g(2026), e70393 [15 pp.]$$pInt. j. climatol.$$tInternational Journal of Climatology$$x0899-8418 000170927 8564_ $$s8598266$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/170927/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000170927 8564_ $$s2656676$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/170927/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000170927 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:170927$$particulos$$pdriver 000170927 951__ $$a2026-04-30-13:57:15 000170927 980__ $$aARTICLE