59207 20210121114521.0 doi 10.1371/journal.pone.0125760 sideral 97711 ART-2015-97711 eng (orcid)0000-0001-7483-046X Estrada-Peña , Agustín Universidad de Zaragoza The impact of climate trends on a tick affecting public health: a retrospective modeling approach for hyaloma marginatum (ixodidae) 2015 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted The impact of climate trends during the period 1901–2009 on the life cycle of Hyalomma marginatum in Europe was modeled to assess changes in the physiological processes of this threat to public health. Monthly records of temperature and water vapour at a resolution of 0.5° and equations describing the life cycle processes of the tick were used. The climate in the target region affected the rates of the life cycle processes of H. marginatum: development rates increased, mortality rates in molting stages decreased, and the survival rates of questing ticks decreased in wide territories of the Mediterranean basin. The modeling framework indicated the existence of critical areas in the Balkans, central Europe, and the western coast of France, where the physiological processes of the tick improved to extents that are consistent with the persistence of populations if introduced. A spatially explicit risk assessment was performed to detect candidate areas where active surveys should be performed to monitor changes in tick density or persistence after a hypothetical introduction. We detected areas where the critical abiotic (climate) and biotic (host density) factors overlap, including most of the Iberian peninsula, the Mediterranean coast of France, eastern Turkey, and portions of the western Black Sea region. Wild ungulate densities are unavailable for large regions of the territory, a factor that might affect the outcome of the study. The risk of successfully establishing H. marginatum populations at northern latitudes of its current colonization range seems to be still low, even if the climate has improved the performance of the tick in these areas. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/278976/EU/ANTIcipating the Global Onset of Novel Epidemics/ANTIGONE info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ 3.057 2015 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES 11 / 62 = 0.177 2015 Q1 T1 1.427 2015 Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) 2015 Q1 Medicine (miscellaneous) 2015 Q1 Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (miscellaneous) 2015 Q1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion de la Fuente, José Latapia, Tamara (orcid)0000-0002-1210-286X Ortega, Carmelo Universidad de Zaragoza 1009 773 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Patología Animal Área Sanidad Animal 10, 5 (2015), 8-16 PLoS One PloS one 1932-6203 1874249 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/59207/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 102673 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/59207/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:59207 articulos driver 2021-01-21-11:03:24 ARTICLE