60645 20170327111935.0 doi 10.3390/econometrics4040041 sideral 98046 ART-2016-98046 eng (orcid)0000-0001-6609-4247 Gadea, M.D. Universidad de Zaragoza Oil Price and Economic Growth: A Long Story? 2016 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately. From a multivariate perspective, we do not observe a significant effect between changes in oil prices and GDP growth when considering the full period. However, we find a significant relationship in some subperiods by carrying out a rolling analysis and by investigating the presence of structural breaks in the multivariate framework. Finally, we obtain evidence, by means of a time-varying VAR, that the impact of the oil price shock on GDP growth has declined over time. We also observe that the negative effect is greater at the time of large oil price increases, supporting previous evidence of nonlinearity in the relationship. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MEC/ECO2014-58991-C3-1-R info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MEC/ECO2014-58991-C3-2-R info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MEC/ECO2015-65967-R info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Gómez-Loscos, Ana (orcid)0000-0002-5872-631X Montañés, Antonio Universidad de Zaragoza 4000 415 Universidad de Zaragoza Departamento de Análisis Económico Fundamentos del Análisis Económico 4008 225 Universidad de Zaragoza Departamento de Estructura e Historia Económicas y Economía Pública Economía Aplicada 4, 4 (2016), [28 pp.] Econometrics Econometrics 2225-1146 450186 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/60645/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 96852 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/60645/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:60645 articulos driver 2017-03-14-14:28:58 ARTICLE