Human mobility networks and persistence of rapidly mutating pathogens

Aleta, Alberto (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Hisi, Andreia N. S. ; Meloni, Sandro (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Poletto, Chiara ; Colizza, Vittoria ; Moreno, Yamir (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Resumen: Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts’ acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the dynamics of the outbreak, including pathogen’s epidemiological traits (e.g. transmissibility, infectious period and duration of immunity), seasonality, interaction with other circulating strains and hosts’ mixing and spatial fragmentation. Here, we study a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model on a metapopulation where individuals are distributed in sub-populations connected via a network of mobility flows. Through extensive numerical simulations, we explore the phase space of pathogen’s persistence and map the dynamical regimes of the pathogen following emergence. Our results show that spatial fragmentation and mobility play a key role in the persistence of the disease whose maximum is reached at intermediate mobility values. We describe the occurrence of different phenomena including local extinction and emergence of epidemic waves, and assess the conditions for large-scale spreading. Findings are highlighted in reference to previous studies and to real scenarios. Our work uncovers the crucial role of hosts’ mobility on the ecological dynamics of rapidly mutating pathogens, opening the path for further studies on disease ecology in the presence of a complex and heterogeneous environment.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160914

Año: 2017

Publicado en: Royal Society Open Science 4, 3 (2017), 160914 [15 pp.]
ISSN: 2054-5703

Factor impacto JCR: 2.504 (2017)

Categ. JCR: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES rank: 17 / 64 = 0.266 (2017) - Q2 - T1

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 1.237 - Multidisciplinary (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/FENOL-GROUP
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/278433/EU/Preparedness, Prediction and Prevention of Emerging Zoonotic Viruses with Pandemic Potential using Multidisciplinary Approaches/PREDEMICS
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/317532/EU/Foundational Research on MULTIlevel comPLEX networks and systems/MULTIPLEX
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FIS2014-55867-P

Tipo y forma: Artículo (Versión definitiva)

Área (Departamento): Área Física Teórica (Dpto. Física Teórica)