61310 20190709135527.0 doi 10.1098/rsos.160914 sideral 98423 ART-2017-98423 eng (orcid)0000-0002-1192-8707 Aleta, Alberto Universidad de Zaragoza Human mobility networks and persistence of rapidly mutating pathogens 2017 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts’ acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the dynamics of the outbreak, including pathogen’s epidemiological traits (e.g. transmissibility, infectious period and duration of immunity), seasonality, interaction with other circulating strains and hosts’ mixing and spatial fragmentation. Here, we study a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model on a metapopulation where individuals are distributed in sub-populations connected via a network of mobility flows. Through extensive numerical simulations, we explore the phase space of pathogen’s persistence and map the dynamical regimes of the pathogen following emergence. Our results show that spatial fragmentation and mobility play a key role in the persistence of the disease whose maximum is reached at intermediate mobility values. We describe the occurrence of different phenomena including local extinction and emergence of epidemic waves, and assess the conditions for large-scale spreading. Findings are highlighted in reference to previous studies and to real scenarios. Our work uncovers the crucial role of hosts’ mobility on the ecological dynamics of rapidly mutating pathogens, opening the path for further studies on disease ecology in the presence of a complex and heterogeneous environment. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FIS2014-55867-P info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/317532/EU/Foundational Research on MULTIlevel comPLEX networks and systems/MULTIPLEX info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/278433/EU/Preparedness, Prediction and Prevention of Emerging Zoonotic Viruses with Pandemic Potential using Multidisciplinary Approaches/PREDEMICS info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/FENOL-GROUP info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ 2.504 2017 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES 17 / 64 = 0.266 2017 Q2 T1 1.237 2017 Multidisciplinary 2017 Q1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Hisi, Andreia N. S. (orcid)0000-0001-6202-3302 Meloni, Sandro Universidad de Zaragoza Poletto, Chiara Colizza, Vittoria (orcid)0000-0002-0895-1893 Moreno, Yamir Universidad de Zaragoza 2004 405 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Física Teórica Área Física Teórica 4, 3 (2017), 160914 [15 pp.] R. Soc. open sci. Royal Society Open Science 2054-5703 1113748 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61310/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 75824 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61310/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:61310 articulos driver 2019-07-09-12:00:28 ARTICLE