61318 20170518134550.0 doi 10.3354/cr028183 sideral 55932 ART-2005-55932 eng (orcid)0000-0002-7974-7435 Abaurrea, J. Universidad de Zaragoza Forecasting Local Daily Precipitation Patterns in a Climate Change Scenario 2005 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted The present study introduces a statistical procedure for obtaining long-term local daily precipitation forecasts in a climate change scenario. It is based on a regression model that uses climate variables properly reproduced by a General Circulation Model (GCM) as predictors. The daily rainfall model used consists of a logistic regression as the occurrence model and a generalized linear model (GLM) with Gamma error distribution as the quantity model. The ability of the model to generate plausible long-term projections is analysed by studying and comparing its behaviour using observed and GCM simulated data as input. The method is applied to forecast the rainfall pattern in the area of Zaragoza (Spain) for the period 2090 –2100, in an IS92a scenario. We use the data corresponding to an experiment with the CGCM1 model, the first version of the coupled GCM of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma). The results obtained show that no significant change in global rainfall frequency or in the annual accumulated amount are to be expected; however, an important modification of the seasonal cycle, with a high decrease in rainfall frequency and in the amount collected in spring, is forecasted. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/REN2002-00009 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess All rights reserved http://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 1.358 2005 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 56 / 139 = 0.403 2005 Q2 T2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 24 / 47 = 0.511 2005 Q3 T2 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion (orcid)0000-0002-0174-789X Asin, J. Universidad de Zaragoza 2007 265 Universidad de Zaragoza Departamento de Métodos Estadísticos Estadística e Investigación Operativa 28, 3 (2005), 183-197 Clim. res. CLIMATE RESEARCH 0936-577X 428562 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61318/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 93219 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61318/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:61318 articulos driver 2017-05-18-10:32:42 ARTICLE