61334 20210507081944.0 doi 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.005 sideral 61371 ART-2007-61371 eng Abaurrea, J. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-7974-7435 Modeling and forecasting extreme hot events in the central Ebro Valley, a continental-mediterranean area 2007 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted This work has three objectives, first, to analyze the observed change in the summer maximum daily temperature during the period 1951–2004, in the centre of the Ebro river basin, a region situated in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula. Secondly, to characterize the extreme hot event behaviour by means of a statistical model consisting of a non-homogeneous Poisson process, to represent the occurrence, and three regression models, each with an adequate non-Normal error distribution, to model its severity. The model parameters are allowed to depend on temperature covariates, to take into account the influence of global warming in hot event generating process. Finally, using the fitted model and different outputs from a GCM, we obtain a medium term projection, up to 2050, of the expected behaviour of these extreme events. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/REN2002-00009 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc-nd http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ 2.311 2007 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL 6 / 31 = 0.194 2007 Q1 T1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY 22 / 137 = 0.161 2007 Q1 T1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Asin,J. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-0174-789X Cebrian, A. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-9052-9674 Centelles, A. 2007 265 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Métodos Estadísticos Área Estadís. Investig. Opera. 57, 1-2 (2007), 43-58 Glob. planet. change GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 0921-8181 797693 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61334/files/texto_completo.pdf Postprint 94069 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61334/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Postprint oai:zaguan.unizar.es:61334 articulos driver 2021-05-07-08:09:25 ARTICLE