000061451 001__ 61451
000061451 005__ 20170612112601.0
000061451 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.3390/en6052624
000061451 0248_ $$2sideral$$a83234
000061451 037__ $$aART-2013-83234
000061451 041__ $$aeng
000061451 100__ $$aMonteiro, C.
000061451 245__ $$aShort-term power forecasting model for photovoltaic plants based on historical similarity
000061451 260__ $$c2013
000061451 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000061451 5203_ $$aThis paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV) plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI) model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical cases composed by past forecasted values of weather variables, obtained from numerical tools for weather prediction, and by past production of electric power in a PV plant. The HISIMI model is able to supply spot values of power forecasts, and also the uncertainty, or probabilities, associated with those spot values, providing new useful information to users with respect to traditional forecasting models for PV plants. Such probabilities enable analysis and evaluation of risk associated with those spot forecasts, for example, in offers of energy sale for electricity markets. The results of spot forecasting of an illustrative example obtained with the HISIMI model for a real-life grid-connected PV plant, which shows high intra-hour variability of its actual power output, with forecasting horizons covering the following day, have improved those obtained with other two power spot forecasting models, which are a persistence model and an artificial neural network model.
000061451 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/ENE2009-14582-C02-02
000061451 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
000061451 590__ $$a1.602$$b2013
000061451 591__ $$aENERGY & FUELS$$b43 / 81 = 0.531$$c2013$$dQ3$$eT2
000061451 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000061451 700__ $$aSantos, T.
000061451 700__ $$aFernandez-Jimenez, L.
000061451 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-5502-4232$$aRamirez-Rosado, I.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000061451 700__ $$aTerreros-Olarte, M.
000061451 7102_ $$15009$$2535$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDepartamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica$$cIngeniería Eléctrica
000061451 773__ $$g6, 5 (2013), 2624-2643$$pENERGIES$$tENERGIES$$x1996-1073
000061451 8564_ $$s413269$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61451/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000061451 8564_ $$s88436$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61451/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000061451 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:61451$$particulos$$pdriver
000061451 951__ $$a2017-06-12-09:14:12
000061451 980__ $$aARTICLE