61599 20210121114522.0 doi 10.1007/s10479-014-1637-z sideral 90623 ART-2015-90623 eng (orcid)0000-0002-5037-6976 Moreno Jiménez, José María Universidad de Zaragoza Systemic decision making in AHP: a Bayesian approach 2015 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Systemic decision making is a new approach for dealing with complex multiactor decision making problems in which the actors’ individual preferences on a fixed set of alternatives are incorporated in a holistic view in accordance with the “principle of tolerance”. The new approach integrates all the preferences, even if they are encapsulated in different individual theoretical models or approaches; the only requirement is that they must be expressed as some kind of probability distribution. In this paper, assuming the analytic hier archy process (AHP) is the multicriteria technique employed to rank alternatives, the authors present a new methodology based on a Bayesian analysis for dealing with AHP systemic decision making in a local context (a single criterion). The approach integrates the individual visions of reality into a collective one by means of a tolerance distribution, which is defined as the weighted geometric mean of the individual preferences expressed as probability distributions. A mathematical justification of this distribution, a study of its statistical properties and aMonte Carlo method for drawing samples are also provided. The paper further presents a number of decisional tools for the evaluation of the acceptance of the tolerance distribution, the construction of tolerance paths that increase representativeness and the extraction of the relevant knowledge of the subjacent multiactor decisional process from a cognitive perspective. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to the AHP-multiplicative model with lognormal errors and a case study related to a real-life experience in local participatory budgets for the Zaragoza City Council (Spain). info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/ECO2011-24181 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess All rights reserved http://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 1.406 2015 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 32 / 82 = 0.39 2015 Q2 T2 1.022 2015 Management Science and Operations Research 2015 Q2 Decision Sciences (miscellaneous) 2015 Q2 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion (orcid)0000-0002-5788-6661 Gargallo, Pilar Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0003-1205-1756 Salvador, Manuel Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-0117-7655 Altuzarra, Alfredo Universidad de Zaragoza 4008 623 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Estruc.Hª Econ.y Eco.Pb. Área Métodos Cuant.Econ.Empres 245, 1 (2015), 261–284 Ann. oper. res. ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH 0254-5330 675742 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61599/files/texto_completo.pdf Postprint 54167 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61599/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Postprint oai:zaguan.unizar.es:61599 articulos driver 2021-01-21-11:04:07 ARTICLE