76859 20210409124033.0 doi 10.1080/19475705.2018.1526219 sideral 109528 ART-2019-109528 eng Martín, Yago Modelling temporal variation of fire-occurrence towards the dynamic prediction of human wildfire ignition danger in northeast Spain 2019 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Models of human-caused ignition probability are typically developed from static or structural points of view. This research analyzes the intra-annual dimension of fire occurrence and fire-triggering factors in NE Spain and moves forward towards more accurate predictions. Applying the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) and using wildfire data (2008–2011) and GIS and remote sensing data for the explanatory variables, we construct eight occurrence data scenarios by splitting wildfire records into the four seasons and then separating each season into working and non-working days. We assess model accuracy using a cross-validation k-fold procedure and an operational validation with 2012 data. Results report a substantial contribution of accessibility across models, often coupled with Land Surface Temperature. In addition, we observe great temporal variability, with WAI strongly influencing winter models, whereas distance to roads stands out during working days. Model performances stand consistently above 0.8 AUC in all temporal scenarios, with outstanding predictive effectiveness during summer months. The comparison among static-to-dynamic approaches reveals superior performance of simulations considering temporal scenarios, with AUC values from 0.7 to 0.85. Overall, we believe our approach is reliable enough to derive dynamic predictions of human-caused fire occurrence. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FJCI-2016-31090 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ 3.333 2019 0.814 2019 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY 45 / 198 = 0.227 2019 Q1 T1 Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 2019 Q1 WATER RESOURCES 17 / 94 = 0.181 2019 Q1 T1 Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) 2019 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 32 / 93 = 0.344 2019 Q2 T2 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion (orcid)0000-0002-9541-5609 Zúñiga Antón, María Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-0477-0796 Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos 3006 435 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ. Área Geografía Humana 10, 1 (2019), 385-411 Geomatics, natural hazards & risk Geomatics, natural hazards & risk 1947-5705 1108638 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/76859/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 66098 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/76859/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:76859 articulos driver 2021-04-09-12:36:12 ARTICLE