89257 20200716101429.0 doi 10.1080/03461238.2018.1531781 sideral 109559 ART-2019-109559 eng de la Llave, Miguel Ángel The impact of geographical factors on churn prediction: an application to an insurance company in Madrid's urban area 2019 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Geography has previously been noted as a decisive factor in business literature. This paper provides evidence of the significant role geography plays in customer lapse behaviour in an urban environment. This novel approach is based on the idea that the customers who cancel all policies and leave the company are not randomly distributed; rather, a mimetic performance of close individuals is noted. The physical proximity of the customer to the geographical focus (strategical centre, as insurance offices) and the interaction with nearby customer are spatial factors that increase (or decrease) the probability of churning. An empirical analysis using more than 7000 spatially georeferenced offline customers of a Spanish insurance company in the urban area of Madrid (Spain) demonstrated that the customer''s proximity to offices of such insurance company under study decreases the probability of churning, whereas high lapse risk was detected in customers in the surroundings of the company''s competitor branches. In addition, we identified spatial autocorrelation in churn probability, thus demonstrating that the probability of churn of a customer increases if nearby customers churn. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA-FEDER/S37-17R info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-FEDER/ECO-2015-65758-P info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess All rights reserved http://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/ 1.705 2019 1.206 2019 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY 36 / 124 = 0.29 2019 Q2 T1 Economics and Econometrics 2019 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS 49 / 106 = 0.462 2019 Q2 T2 Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty 2019 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS 21 / 51 = 0.412 2019 Q2 T2 Statistics and Probability 2019 Q1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion López, Fernando A. (orcid)0000-0003-4719-1345 Angulo, Ana Universidad de Zaragoza 4000 415 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Análisis Económico Área Fund. Análisis Económico 2019, 3 (2019), 188-203 SCANDINAVIAN ACTUARIAL JOURNAL SCANDINAVIAN ACTUARIAL JOURNAL 0346-1238 1016489 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/89257/files/texto_completo.pdf Postprint 246212 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/89257/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Postprint oai:zaguan.unizar.es:89257 articulos driver 2020-07-16-08:48:12 ARTICLE