000089828 001__ 89828
000089828 005__ 20210902121759.0
000089828 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1371/journal.pone.0232534
000089828 0248_ $$2sideral$$a118185
000089828 037__ $$aART-2020-118185
000089828 041__ $$aeng
000089828 100__ $$aAguilar-Vega, C.
000089828 245__ $$aA model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain
000089828 260__ $$c2020
000089828 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000089828 5203_ $$aBluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.
000089828 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727393/EU/Understanding pathogen, livestock, environment interactions involving bluetongue virus/PALE-Blu$$9This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No H2020 727393-PALE-Blu
000089828 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
000089828 590__ $$a3.24$$b2020
000089828 591__ $$aMULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES$$b26 / 73 = 0.356$$c2020$$dQ2$$eT2
000089828 592__ $$a0.99$$b2020
000089828 593__ $$aMultidisciplinary$$c2020$$dQ1
000089828 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000089828 700__ $$aFernández-Carrión, E.
000089828 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-0663-8411$$aLucientes, J.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000089828 700__ $$aSánchez-Vizcaíno, J.M.
000089828 7102_ $$11009$$2773$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Patología Animal$$cÁrea Sanidad Animal
000089828 773__ $$g15, 4 (2020), e0232534 [22 pp]$$pPLoS One$$tPloS one$$x1932-6203
000089828 8564_ $$s865967$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/89828/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000089828 8564_ $$s501166$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/89828/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000089828 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:89828$$particulos$$pdriver
000089828 951__ $$a2021-09-02-09:54:01
000089828 980__ $$aARTICLE