000095490 001__ 95490
000095490 005__ 20210902121735.0
000095490 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1073/pnas.1917774117
000095490 0248_ $$2sideral$$a119561
000095490 037__ $$aART-2020-119561
000095490 041__ $$aeng
000095490 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-3974-2947$$aBegueriá, Santiago
000095490 245__ $$aQualitative crop condition survey reveals spatiotemporal production patterns and allows early yield prediction
000095490 260__ $$c2020
000095490 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000095490 5203_ $$aLarge-scale continuous crop monitoring systems (CMS) are key to detect and manage agricultural production anomalies. Current CMS exploit meteorological and crop growth models, and satellite imagery, but have underutilized legacy sources of information such as operational crop expert surveys with long and uninterrupted records. We argue that crop expert assessments, despite their subjective and categorical nature, capture the complexities of assessing the "status" of a crop better than any model or remote sensing retrieval. This is because crop rating data naturally encapsulates the broad expert knowledge of many individual surveyors spread throughout the country, constituting a sophisticated network of "people as sensors" that provide consistent and accurate information on crop progress. We analyze data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress and Condition (CPC) survey between 1987 and 2019 for four major crops across the US, and show how to transform the original qualitative data into a continuous, probabilistic variable better suited to quantitative analysis. Although the CPC reflects the subjective perception of many surveyors at different locations, the underlying models that describe the reported crop status are statistically robust and maintain similar characteristics across different crops, exhibit long-term stability, and have nation-wide validity. We discuss the origin and interpretation of existing spatial and temporal biases in the survey data. Finally, we propose a quantitative Crop Condition Index based on the CPC survey and demonstrate how this index can be used to monitor crop status and provide earlier and more precise predictions of crop yields than official USDA forecasts released midseason.
000095490 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/CGL2017-83866-C3-3-R
000095490 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc-nd$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
000095490 590__ $$a11.205$$b2020
000095490 591__ $$aMULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES$$b8 / 73 = 0.11$$c2020$$dQ1$$eT1
000095490 592__ $$a5.011$$b2020
000095490 593__ $$aMultidisciplinary$$c2020$$dQ1
000095490 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000095490 700__ $$aManeta, Marco P.
000095490 773__ $$g117, 31 (2020), 18317-18323$$pProc. Natl. Acad. Sci.$$tProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences$$x0027-8424
000095490 8564_ $$s3307177$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/95490/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000095490 8564_ $$s711887$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/95490/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000095490 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:95490$$particulos$$pdriver
000095490 951__ $$a2021-09-02-09:38:23
000095490 980__ $$aARTICLE