000095802 001__ 95802
000095802 005__ 20210902121917.0
000095802 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.18172/cig.4377
000095802 0248_ $$2sideral$$a120240
000095802 037__ $$aART-2020-120240
000095802 041__ $$aspa
000095802 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-8518-9177$$aGonzález-Hidalgo, J.C.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000095802 245__ $$aVariaciones temporales de las tendencias en la serie de temperatura de inglaterra central
000095802 260__ $$c2020
000095802 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000095802 5203_ $$aVariations in trend rates of annual values of the Central England Temperature series (CET) over the period 1659-2017 were analysed using moving windows of different length, to identify the minimum period in which the trend expresses a climate signal not hidden by the noise produced by natural variability. Trend rates exhibit high variability and irregular shifting from positive to negative values unless very long window lengths (of 100 years or more) are used. In general, as the duration of the length of the temporal window analysed increases, the absolute range of the trend rates decreases and the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio increases. The relationship between the S/N ratio and the window length also depended on the total length of the series, so high S/N values are achieved faster when shorter time series are considered. This prevents suggesting a minimum window length for undertaking trend analyses. A comparison between CET and the average continental series in the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) database in their common period (17532017) repeats the patterns described for 1659-2017, although the average values of the rates, ranges and the “threshold period” in years change, and are more variable in CET than in BEST. Analysis of both series suggests that the recent warming started early and can be linked to the recovery of temperatures after the Little Ice Age. This process has characterised by progressively increasing trend rates, but also includes periods of deceleration or even negative trends spanning less than 50 years. The behaviour of the two long-term temperature records analysed agrees with a long-term persistence (LTP) process. We estimated the Hurst exponent of the CET series to be around 0.72 and 0.8, which reinforces the LTP hypothesis. This implies that the currently widespread statistical framework assuming a stationary, short-memory process in which departures from the norm can be easily assessed by monotonic trend analysis should not be accepted for long climatic series. In brief, relevant questions relative to the recent evolution of temperatures such as the distinction between natural variability and departures from stationarity; attribution of the causes of variability at different time scales; determination of the shortest window length to detect a trend; and other similar ones have still not been answered and may require adoption of an alternative analytical framework.
000095802 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E02-17R$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/CGL2017-83866-C3-1-R$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/CGL2017-83866-C3-3-R$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FJCI-2017-33652
000095802 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc-nd$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
000095802 592__ $$a0.537$$b2020
000095802 593__ $$aEarth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)$$c2020$$dQ2
000095802 593__ $$aGeography, Planning and Development$$c2020$$dQ2
000095802 593__ $$aEnvironmental Science (miscellaneous)$$c2020$$dQ2
000095802 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000095802 700__ $$aPeña-Angulo, D.
000095802 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-3974-2947$$aBeguería, S.
000095802 7102_ $$13006$$2430$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Geografía Física
000095802 773__ $$g46, 2 (2020), 345-369$$pCuad. investig. geogr.$$tGeographical Research Letters$$x0211-6820
000095802 8564_ $$s1390292$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/95802/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000095802 8564_ $$s352072$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/95802/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
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000095802 951__ $$a2021-09-02-10:46:21
000095802 980__ $$aARTICLE