95836 20210902121756.0 doi 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9c4f sideral 120154 ART-2020-120154 eng Pena-Angulo, D. Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing 2020 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted We present a long-term assessment of precipitation trends in Southwestern Europe (1850-2018) using data from multiple sources, including observations, gridded datasets and global climate model experiments. Contrary to previous investigations based on shorter records, we demonstrate, using new long-term, quality controlled precipitation series, the lack of statistically significant long-term decreasing trends in precipitation for the region. Rather, significant trends were mostly found for shorter periods, highlighting the prevalence of interdecadal and interannual variability at these time-scales. Global climate model outputs from three CMIP experiments are evaluated for periods concurrent with observations. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles show precipitation decline, with only CMIP6 showing agreement with long term trends in observations. However, for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 large interannual and internal variability among ensemble members makes it difficult to identify a trend that is statistically different from observations. Across both observations and models, our results make it difficult to associate any declining trends in precipitation in Southwestern Europe to anthropogenic forcing at this stage. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/690462/EU/European Research Area for Climate Services/ERA4CS This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No H2020 690462-ERA4CS info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-FEDER/CGL2017-82216-R info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-FEDER/CGL2017-83866-C3-3-R info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-FEDER/PCI2019-103631 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by-nc-sa http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/ 6.793 2020 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 8 / 94 = 0.085 2020 Q1 T1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 33 / 273 = 0.121 2020 Q1 T1 2.37 2020 Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 2020 Q1 Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment 2020 Q1 Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health 2020 Q1 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Vicente-Serrano, S.M. (orcid)0000-0003-3085-7040 Dominguez-Castro, F. Murphy, C. Reig, F. Tramblay, Y. Trigo, R.M. Luna, M.Y. Turco, M. Noguera, I. Aznarez-Balta, M. Garcia-Herrera, R. Tomas-Burguera, M. El Kenawy, A. 15, 9 (2020), 094070 [11 pp] Environmental Research Letters Environmental Research Letters 1748-9326 653842 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/95836/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 89524 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/95836/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:95836 articulos driver 2021-09-02-09:52:13 ARTICLE