Identifying spanish areas at more risk of monthly BTV transmission with a basic reproduction number approach

Aguilar-Vega, C. ; Bosch, J. ; Fernández-Carrión, E. ; Lucientes, J. (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J.M.

Resumen: Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes a disease that is endemic in Spain and its two major biological vector species, C. imicola and the Obsoletus complex species, differ greatly in their ecology and distribution. Understanding the seasonality of BTV transmission in risk areas is key to improving surveillance and control programs, as well as to better understand the pathogen transmission networks between wildlife and livestock. Here, monthly risk transmission maps were generated using risk categories based on well-known BTV R0 equations and predicted abundances of the two most relevant vectors in Spain. Previously, Culicoides spp. predicted abundances in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands were obtained using remote sensing data and random forest machine learning algorithm. Risk transmission maps were externally assessed with the estimated date of infection of BTV-1 and BTV-4 historical outbreaks. Our results highlight the differences in risk transmission during April-October, June-August being the period with higher R0 values. Likewise, a natural barrier has been identified between northern and central-southern areas at risk that may hamper BTV spread between them. Our results can be relevant to implement risk-based interventions for the prevention, control and surveillance of BTV and other diseases shared between livestock and wildlife host populations.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.3390/v12101158

Año: 2020

Publicado en: VIRUSES-BASEL 12, 10 (2020), 1158 [20 pp]
ISSN: 1999-4915

Factor impacto JCR: 5.048 (2020)

Categ. JCR: VIROLOGY rank: 10 / 36 = 0.278 (2020) - Q2 - T1

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 1.828 - Virology (Q1) - Infectious Diseases (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727393/EU/Understanding pathogen, livestock, environment interactions involving bluetongue virus/PALE-Blu

Tipo y forma: Artículo (Versión definitiva)

Área (Departamento): Área Sanidad Animal (Dpto. Patología Animal)