99261 20250619084223.0 doi 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.2.013312 sideral 122457 ART-2020-122457 eng Soriano-Paños, D. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0002-6388-4056 Vector-borne epidemics driven by human mobility 2020 Access copy available to the general public Unrestricted Vector-borne epidemics are progressively becoming a global burden, especially those related to flaviviruses, and the effects of different factors such as climate change or the increase of human mobility can sensibly increase the population at risk worldwide. Such outbreaks are the result of the combination of different factors including crossed contagions between humans and vectors, their demographic distribution and human mobility among others. The current availability of information about all those ingredients demands their incorporation into current mathematical models for vector-borne disease transmission. Here, relying on a Markovian formulation of the metapopulation dynamics, we propose a framework that explicitly includes human-vector interactions, mobility, and demography. The analysis of the framework allows us not only to derive an expression of the epidemic threshold capturing the conditions for the onset of the epidemics but also to highlight some unseen features of vector-borne epidemics, such as abrupt changes in the unfolding patterns of the disease for small variations of the degree of mobility. Finally, driven by these insights, we obtain a prevalence indicator to rank populations according to their risk of being affected by a vector-borne disease. We illustrate the utility of this indicator by reproducing the spatial distribution Dengue cases reported in the city of Santiago de Cali (Colombia) from 2015 to 2016. info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA-FSE/E36-17R info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MCIU-AEI-FEDER/PACSS-RTI2018-093732-B-C22 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-FEDER/FIS2015-71582-C2 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO-FEDER/FIS2017-87519-P info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/MDM-2017-0711 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess by http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Arias-Castro, J.H. Reyna-Lara, A. Martinez, H.J. Meloni, S. Gomez-Gardeñes, J. Universidad de Zaragoza (orcid)0000-0001-5204-1937 2003 395 Universidad de Zaragoza Dpto. Física Materia Condensa. Área Física Materia Condensada 2, 1 (2020), 013312 [12 pp.] Phys. rev. res. Physical Review Research 2643-1564 835132 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/99261/files/texto_completo.pdf Versión publicada 3119772 http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/99261/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon icon Versión publicada oai:zaguan.unizar.es:99261 articulos driver 2025-06-19-08:41:26 ARTICLE