Short-term power forecasting model for photovoltaic plants based on historical similarity
Resumen: This paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV) plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI) model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical cases composed by past forecasted values of weather variables, obtained from numerical tools for weather prediction, and by past production of electric power in a PV plant. The HISIMI model is able to supply spot values of power forecasts, and also the uncertainty, or probabilities, associated with those spot values, providing new useful information to users with respect to traditional forecasting models for PV plants. Such probabilities enable analysis and evaluation of risk associated with those spot forecasts, for example, in offers of energy sale for electricity markets. The results of spot forecasting of an illustrative example obtained with the HISIMI model for a real-life grid-connected PV plant, which shows high intra-hour variability of its actual power output, with forecasting horizons covering the following day, have improved those obtained with other two power spot forecasting models, which are a persistence model and an artificial neural network model.
Idioma: Inglés
DOI: 10.3390/en6052624
Año: 2013
Publicado en: ENERGIES 6, 5 (2013), 2624-2643
ISSN: 1996-1073

Factor impacto JCR: 1.602 (2013)
Categ. JCR: ENERGY & FUELS rank: 43 / 81 = 0.531 (2013) - Q3 - T2
Factor impacto SCIMAGO:

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/ENE2009-14582-C02-02
Tipo y forma: Artículo (Versión definitiva)
Área (Departamento): Ingeniería Eléctrica (Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica)

Creative Commons Debe reconocer adecuadamente la autoría, proporcionar un enlace a la licencia e indicar si se han realizado cambios. Puede hacerlo de cualquier manera razonable, pero no de una manera que sugiera que tiene el apoyo del licenciador o lo recibe por el uso que hace.


Exportado de SIDERAL (2017-06-12-09:14:12)

Este artículo se encuentra en las siguientes colecciones:
Artículos > Artículos por área > Ingeniería Eléctrica



 Registro creado el 2017-06-12, última modificación el 2017-06-12


Versión publicada:
 PDF
Valore este documento:

Rate this document:
1
2
3
 
(Sin ninguna reseña)