Infectious disease dynamics in metapopulations with heterogeneous transmission and recurrent mobility

Cota W. ; Soriano-Paos D. ; Arenas A. ; Ferreira S.C. ; Gómez-Gardeñes J. (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Resumen: Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements, epidemic models should be refined to incorporate both the heterogeneity of human contacts and the complexity of mobility patterns. Here, we propose a theoretical framework that allows accommodating these two aspects in the form of a set of Markovian equations. We validate these equations with extensive mechanistic simulations and derive analytically the epidemic threshold. The expression of this critical value allows us to evaluate its dependence on the specific demographic distribution, the structure of mobility flows, and the heterogeneity of contact patterns, thus shedding light on the microscopic mechanisms responsible for the epidemic detriment driven by recurrent mobility patterns reported in the literature. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd on behalf of the Institute of Physics and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ac0c99

Año: 2021

Publicado en: New Journal of Physics 23, 7 (2021), 073019
ISSN: 1367-2630

Factor impacto JCR: 3.716 (2021)

Categ. JCR: PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY rank: 33 / 86 = 0.384 (2021) - Q2 - T2

Factor impacto CITESCORE: 6.7 - Physics and Astronomy (Q1)

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 1.371 - Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous) (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E19-FENOL Group
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FIS2015-71582-C2
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FIS2017-87519-P
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/PGC2018-094754-B-C21
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/UZ-IBERCAJA/224220

Tipo y forma: Article (Published version)

Área (Departamento): Área Física Materia Condensada (Dpto. Física Materia Condensa.)