000119753 001__ 119753
000119753 005__ 20240319081026.0
000119753 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116134
000119753 0248_ $$2sideral$$a130516
000119753 037__ $$aART-2022-130516
000119753 041__ $$aeng
000119753 100__ $$aMiezïte, Lauma Elza
000119753 245__ $$aTrajectories of wildfire behavior under climate change. Can forest management mitigate the increasing hazard?
000119753 260__ $$c2022
000119753 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000119753 5203_ $$aMediterranean forests and fire regimes are closely intertwined. Global change is likely to alter both forest dynamics and wildfire activity, ultimately threatening the provision of ecosystem services and posing greater risks to society. In this paper we evaluate future wildfire behavior by coupling climate projections with simulation models of forest dynamics and wildfire hazard. To do so, we explore different forest management scenarios reflecting different narratives related to EU forestry (promotion of carbon stocks, reduction of water vulnerability, biomass production and business-as-usual) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate pathways in the period 2020–2100. We used as a study model pure submediterranean Pinus nigra forests of central Catalonia (NE Spain). Forest dynamics were simulated from the 3rd National Forest Inventory (143 stands) using SORTIE-nd software based on climate projections under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The climate products were also used to estimate fuel moisture conditions (both live and dead) and wind speed. Fuel parameters and fire behavior were then simulated, selecting crown fire initiation potential and rate of spread as key indicators. The results revealed consistent trade-offs between forest dynamics, climate and wildfire. Despite the clear influence exerted by climate, forest management modulates fire behavior, resulting in different trends depending on the climatic pathway. In general, the maintenance of current practices would result in the highest rates of crown fire activity, while management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative to surmount the increasingly hazardous conditions envisaged in RCP 8.5.
000119753 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/291832/EU/Enhancing FOrest RESearch in the MediTERRAnean through improved coordination and integration/FORESTERRA$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2019-111781RB-I00$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-116556RA-I00
000119753 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc-nd$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
000119753 590__ $$a8.7$$b2022
000119753 592__ $$a1.678$$b2022
000119753 591__ $$aENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES$$b31 / 275 = 0.113$$c2022$$dQ1$$eT1
000119753 593__ $$aEnvironmental Engineering$$c2022$$dQ1
000119753 593__ $$aWaste Management and Disposal$$c2022$$dQ1
000119753 593__ $$aMedicine (miscellaneous)$$c2022$$dQ1
000119753 593__ $$aManagement, Monitoring, Policy and Law$$c2022$$dQ1
000119753 594__ $$a13.4$$b2022
000119753 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000119753 700__ $$aAmeztegui, Aitor
000119753 700__ $$aDe Cáceres, Miquel
000119753 700__ $$aColl, Lluís
000119753 700__ $$aMorán-Ordóñez, Alejandra
000119753 700__ $$aVega-García, Cristina
000119753 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0477-0796$$aRodrigues, Marcos$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000119753 7102_ $$13006$$2010$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Análisis Geográfico Regi.
000119753 773__ $$g322 (2022), 116134 [11 pp]$$pJ. environ. manag.$$tJournal of environmental management$$x0301-4797
000119753 8564_ $$s4108844$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/119753/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000119753 8564_ $$s2591650$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/119753/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000119753 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:119753$$particulos$$pdriver
000119753 951__ $$a2024-03-18-16:46:19
000119753 980__ $$aARTICLE