Epidemic spreading in populations of mobile agents with adaptive behavioral response

Ventura, Paulo Cesar ; Aleta, Alberto (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Rodrigues, Francisco A. ; Moreno, Yamir (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Resumen: Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease, such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important role on epidemic dynamics and is also affected by behavioral changes, but there are many situations in which real mobility data is incomplete or inaccessible. We present a model for epidemic spreading in temporal networks of mobile agents that incorporates local behavioral responses. Susceptible agents are allowed to move towards the opposite direction of infected agents in their neighborhood. We show that this mechanism considerably decreases the stationary prevalence when the spatial density of agents is low. However, for higher densities, the mechanism causes an abrupt phase transition, where a new bistable phase appears. We develop a semi-analytic approach for the case when the mobility is fast compared to the disease dynamics, and use it to argue that the bistability is caused by the emergence of spatial clusters of susceptible agents. Finally, we characterize the temporal networks formed in the fast mobility regime, showing how the degree distributions and other metrics are affected by the behavioral mechanism. Our work incorporates results previously known from adaptive networks into population of mobile agents, which can be further developed to be used in mobility-driven models.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.111849

Año: 2022

Publicado en: Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 156 (2022), 111849 [10 pp.]
ISSN: 0960-0779

Factor impacto JCR: 7.8 (2022)

Categ. JCR: PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL rank: 1 / 56 = 0.018 (2022) - Q1 - T1
Categ. JCR: MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS rank: 3 / 107 = 0.028 (2022) - Q1 - T1
Categ. JCR: PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY rank: 11 / 85 = 0.129 (2022) - Q1 - T1

Factor impacto CITESCORE: 11.8 - Mathematics (Q1) - Physics and Astronomy (Q1)

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 1.393 - Applied Mathematics (Q1) - Mathematical Physics (Q1) - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics (Q1) - Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous) (Q1) - Mathematics (miscellaneous) (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-20R
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MCIN-AEI-FEDER/PID2020-115800GB-I00

Tipo y forma: Artículo (PostPrint)

Área (Departamento): Área Física Teórica (Dpto. Física Teórica)