Contagion-diffusion processes with recurrent mobility patterns of distinguishable agents

Valgañón, P. ; Soriano-Paños, D. ; Arenas, A. ; Gómez-Gardeñes, J. (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Resumen: The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents to alleviate analytical difficulties. Here, we address the impact that recurrent mobility patterns, and the spatial distribution of distinguishable agents, have on the unfolding of epidemics in large urban areas. We incorporate the distinguishable nature of agents regarding both their residence and their usual destination. The proposed model allows both a fast computation of the spatiotemporal pattern of the epidemic trajectory and the analytical calculation of the epidemic threshold. This threshold is found as the spectral radius of a mixing matrix encapsulating the residential distribution and the specific commuting patterns of agents. We prove that the simplification of indistinguishable individuals overestimates the value of the epidemic threshold.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1063/5.0085532

Año: 2022

Publicado en: CHAOS 32, 4 (2022), 043102 [12 pp.]
ISSN: 1054-1500

Factor impacto JCR: 2.9 (2022)

Categ. JCR: PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL rank: 8 / 56 = 0.143 (2022) - Q1 - T1
Categ. JCR: MATHEMATICS, APPLIED rank: 29 / 267 = 0.109 (2022) - Q1 - T1

Factor impacto CITESCORE: 5.9 - Mathematics (Q1) - Physics and Astronomy (Q1)

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 0.82 - Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous) (Q1) - Mathematical Physics (Q1) - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics (Q2) - Applied Mathematics (Q2) - Medicine (miscellaneous) (Q2)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-17R
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-113582GB-I00
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/PGC2018-094754-B-C21
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/UZ-IBERCAJA/224220

Tipo y forma: Article (PostPrint)

Área (Departamento): Área Física Materia Condensada (Dpto. Física Materia Condensa.)