000126963 001__ 126963
000126963 005__ 20250619084224.0
000126963 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.2196/40514
000126963 0248_ $$2sideral$$a134368
000126963 037__ $$aART-2023-134368
000126963 041__ $$aeng
000126963 100__ $$aSteinegger, Benjamin
000126963 245__ $$aJoint analysis of the epidemic evolution and human mobility during the first wave of Covid-19 in Spain: retrospective study
000126963 260__ $$c2023
000126963 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000126963 5203_ $$aBackground
The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive.
Objective
In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly.
Methods
We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures.
Results
Our analysis demonstrated that the pre–national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively.
Conclusions
Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.
000126963 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E19-FENOL Group$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FIS2017-87519-P$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/UZ-IBERCAJA/224220
000126963 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
000126963 590__ $$a3.5$$b2023
000126963 592__ $$a1.421$$b2023
000126963 591__ $$aPUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH$$b85 / 408 = 0.208$$c2023$$dQ1$$eT1
000126963 593__ $$aPublic Health, Environmental and Occupational Health$$c2023$$dQ1
000126963 591__ $$aPUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH$$b85 / 408 = 0.208$$c2023$$dQ1$$eT1
000126963 593__ $$aHealth Informatics$$c2023$$dQ1
000126963 594__ $$a13.7$$b2023
000126963 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000126963 700__ $$aGranell, Clara
000126963 700__ $$aRapisardi, Giacomo
000126963 700__ $$aGómez, Sergio
000126963 700__ $$aMatamalas, Joan
000126963 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-6388-4056$$aSoriano-Paños, David
000126963 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-5204-1937$$aGómez-Gardeñes, Jesús$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000126963 700__ $$aArenas, Alex
000126963 7102_ $$12003$$2395$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Física Materia Condensa.$$cÁrea Física Materia Condensada
000126963 773__ $$g9 (2023), e40514 [12 pp.]$$tJMIR public health and surveillance$$x2369-2960
000126963 8564_ $$s563016$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/126963/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000126963 8564_ $$s2445300$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/126963/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000126963 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:126963$$particulos$$pdriver
000126963 951__ $$a2025-06-19-08:41:29
000126963 980__ $$aARTICLE