Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19

Aleta, A. ; Martín-Corral, D. ; Pastore y Piontti, A. ; Ajelli, M. ; Litvinova, M. ; Chinazzi, M. ; Dean, N.E. ; Halloran, M.E. ; Longini Jr, I.M. ; Merler, S. ; Pentland, A. ; Vespignani, A. ; Moro, E. ; Moreno, Y. (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Resumen: While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9

Año: 2020

Publicado en: Nature human behaviour 4 (2020), 964–971
ISSN: 2397-3374

Factor impacto JCR: 13.663 (2020)

Categ. JCR: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES rank: 6 / 72 = 0.083 (2020) - Q1 - T1
Categ. JCR: PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL rank: 2 / 90 = 0.022 (2020) - Q1 - T1
Categ. JCR: NEUROSCIENCES rank: 9 / 273 = 0.033 (2020) - Q1 - T1

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 3.434 - Behavioral Neuroscience (Q1) - Social Psychology (Q1) - Experimental and Cognitive Psychology (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E36-17R-FENOL
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FIS2016-78904-C3-3-P
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FIS2017-87519-P

Tipo y forma: Article (PostPrint)

Área (Departamento): Área Física Teórica (Dpto. Física Teórica)