Will you marry me? It depends (on the business cycle)

Bellido, Héctor (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Marcén, Miriam (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Resumen: This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and the marriage rate, using a panel data of 30 European countries for 1991 to 2018. Our results point to a pro-cyclical behavior of marriage rates, which holds after controlling for country-level observed and unobserved characteristics. We detect possible different responses of the marriage rate to the business cycle, after considering a wide range of country-level regulation affecting couples (taxation, property division, informal relationship regulations, and reproduction). Our findings suggest an important role of the cost/gain of marriage versus cohabitation/singlehood. Supplemental analysis reveals gender differences in the relationship between the business cycle and the marriage rate, depending on the previous legal marital status of the individuals. We provide additional evidence on the consequences of the pro-cyclical response of marriage rate by exploring variations in the stock of married/unmarried individuals. Results show a clear negative association between the business cycle and the stock of married individuals, but no negative response is found for the stock of those living as unmarried couples.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1007/s11150-020-09493-z

Año: 2020

Publicado en: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS OF THE HOUSEHOLD 19 (2020), 551–579
ISSN: 1569-5239

Factor impacto JCR: 1.559 (2020)

Categ. JCR: ECONOMICS rank: 234 / 375 = 0.624 (2020) - Q3 - T2

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 0.791 - Social Sciences (miscellaneous) (Q1) - Economics and Econometrics (Q1)

Tipo y forma: Article (PostPrint)

Área (Departamento): Área Fund. Análisis Económico (Dpto. Análisis Económico)