Enhanced palaeoseismic succession at the Concud Fault (Iberian Chain, Spain): new insights for seismic hazard assessment

Simón, J.L. (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Arlegui, L.E. (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Ezquerro, L. ; Lafuente, P. ; Liesa, C.L. (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Luzón, A. (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Resumen: A new trench excavated at the southern sector of the Concud Fault provided evidence of three palaeoseismic events dated to ca. 21, 18 and 13–3 ka BP, respectively. The two youngest ones had not been detected in previous studies. The results extend the total recorded palaeoseismic succession for the fault: eleven events since ca. 74 ka BP to the present day, with an average recurrence period between 7.1 ± 3.5 and 8.0 ± 3.3 ka; total net accumulated slip of about 20.5 m, with average coseismic slip of 1.9 m. The displacement pattern shows alternating periods of fast slip (up to 0.53 mm/a) and slow slip (0.13 mm/a), resulting in average slip rate of 0.29 mm/a. Using this palaeoseismic information, as well as the potential magnitude previously attributed to the characteristic earthquake at the Concud Fault (M ˜ 6.5–6.6), a simple probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed. The estimated probability of occurrence of the characteristic earthquake within the next 500-year period ranges from 2.3 to 26.1 %, according to distinct hypotheses on the elapsed time derived from the uncertainty about the age of the youngest event.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2054-6

Año: 2016

Publicado en: NATURAL HAZARDS 80 (2016), 1967-1993
ISSN: 0921-030X

Factor impacto JCR: 1.833 (2016)

Categ. JCR: GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY rank: 91 / 188 = 0.484 (2016) - Q2 - T2
Categ. JCR: WATER RESOURCES rank: 33 / 87 = 0.379 (2016) - Q2 - T2
Categ. JCR: METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES rank: 42 / 83 = 0.506 (2016) - Q3 - T2

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 0.798 - Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) (Q1) - Water Science and Technology (Q1) - Atmospheric Science (Q2)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/BES-2010-031339
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/CGL2012-35662
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/UZ/E27

Tipo y forma: Artículo (PostPrint)

Área (Departamento): Área Geodinámica Interna (Dpto. Ciencias de la Tierra)
Área (Departamento): Área Estratigrafía (Dpto. Ciencias de la Tierra)