000153027 001__ 153027 000153027 005__ 20251017144642.0 000153027 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6 000153027 0248_ $$2sideral$$a143460 000153027 037__ $$aART-2025-143460 000153027 041__ $$aeng 000153027 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-2892-518X$$aVicente-Serrano, Sergio M. 000153027 245__ $$aHigh temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation 000153027 260__ $$c2025 000153027 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted 000153027 5203_ $$aState-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2,3,4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots 000153027 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EUR/MICINN/FEDER/TED2021-129152B-C41$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2022-137244OB-I00 000153027 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc-nd$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es 000153027 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 000153027 700__ $$aTramblay, Yves 000153027 700__ $$aReig, Fergus 000153027 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-8518-9177$$aGonzález-Hidalgo, José C.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000153027 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-3974-2947$$aBeguería, Santiago 000153027 700__ $$aBrunetti, Michele 000153027 700__ $$aKalin, Ksenija Cindric 000153027 700__ $$aPatalen, Leonardo 000153027 700__ $$aKržic, Aleksandra 000153027 700__ $$aLionello, Piero 000153027 700__ $$aLima, Miguel M. 000153027 700__ $$aTrigo, Ricardo M. 000153027 700__ $$aEl-Kenawy, Ahmed M. 000153027 700__ $$aEddenjal, Ali 000153027 700__ $$aTürkes, Murat 000153027 700__ $$aKoutroulis, Aristeidis 000153027 700__ $$aManara, Veronica 000153027 700__ $$aMaugeri, Maurizio 000153027 700__ $$aBadi, Wafae 000153027 700__ $$aMathbout, Shifa 000153027 700__ $$aBertalanic, Renato 000153027 700__ $$aBocheva, Lilia 000153027 700__ $$aDabanli, Ismail 000153027 700__ $$aDumitrescu, Alexandru 000153027 700__ $$aDubuisson, Brigitte 000153027 700__ $$aSahabi-Abed, Salah 000153027 700__ $$aAbdulla, Fayez 000153027 700__ $$aFayad, Abbas 000153027 700__ $$aHodzic, Sabina 000153027 700__ $$aIvanov, Mirjana 000153027 700__ $$aRadevski, Ivan 000153027 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-5333-2285$$aPeña-Angulo, Dhais$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza 000153027 700__ $$aLorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge 000153027 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-3085-7040$$aDomínguez-Castro, Fernando 000153027 700__ $$aGimeno-Sotelo, Luis 000153027 700__ $$aGarcía-Herrera, Ricardo 000153027 700__ $$aFranquesa, Magí 000153027 700__ $$aHalifa-Marín, Amar 000153027 700__ $$aAdell-Michavila, Maria 000153027 700__ $$aNoguera, Ivan 000153027 700__ $$aBarriopedro, David 000153027 700__ $$aGarrido-Perez, Jose M. 000153027 700__ $$aAzorin-Molina, Cesar 000153027 700__ $$aAndres-Martin, Miguel 000153027 700__ $$aGimeno, Luis 000153027 700__ $$aNieto, Raquel 000153027 700__ $$aLlasat, Maria Carmen 000153027 700__ $$aMarkonis, Yannis 000153027 700__ $$aSelmi, Rabeb 000153027 700__ $$aBen Rached, Soumaya 000153027 700__ $$aRadovanovic, Slavica 000153027 700__ $$aSoubeyroux, Jean-Michel 000153027 700__ $$aRibes, Aurélien 000153027 700__ $$aSaidi, Mohamed Elmehdi 000153027 700__ $$aBataineh, Siham 000153027 700__ $$aEl Khalki, El Mahdi 000153027 700__ $$aRobaa, Sayed 000153027 700__ $$aBoucetta, Amina 000153027 700__ $$aAlsafadi, Karam 000153027 700__ $$aMamassis, Nikos 000153027 700__ $$aMohammed, Safwan 000153027 700__ $$aFernández-Duque, Beatriz 000153027 700__ $$aCheval, Sorin 000153027 700__ $$aMoutia, Sara 000153027 700__ $$aStevkov, Aleksandra 000153027 700__ $$aStevkova, Silvana 000153027 700__ $$aLuna, M. Yolanda 000153027 700__ $$aPotopová, Vera 000153027 7102_ $$13006$$2430$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Geografía Física 000153027 773__ $$g639, 8055 (2025), 658-666$$pNature$$tNature$$x0028-0836 000153027 8564_ $$s16748554$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/153027/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada 000153027 8564_ $$s2811772$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/153027/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada 000153027 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:153027$$particulos$$pdriver 000153027 951__ $$a2025-10-17-14:32:38 000153027 980__ $$aARTICLE