000153027 001__ 153027
000153027 005__ 20251017144642.0
000153027 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6
000153027 0248_ $$2sideral$$a143460
000153027 037__ $$aART-2025-143460
000153027 041__ $$aeng
000153027 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-2892-518X$$aVicente-Serrano, Sergio M.
000153027 245__ $$aHigh temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
000153027 260__ $$c2025
000153027 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000153027 5203_ $$aState-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2,3,4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots
000153027 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EUR/MICINN/FEDER/TED2021-129152B-C41$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2022-137244OB-I00
000153027 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc-nd$$uhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
000153027 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000153027 700__ $$aTramblay, Yves
000153027 700__ $$aReig, Fergus
000153027 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-8518-9177$$aGonzález-Hidalgo, José C.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000153027 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-3974-2947$$aBeguería, Santiago
000153027 700__ $$aBrunetti, Michele
000153027 700__ $$aKalin, Ksenija Cindric
000153027 700__ $$aPatalen, Leonardo
000153027 700__ $$aKržic, Aleksandra
000153027 700__ $$aLionello, Piero
000153027 700__ $$aLima, Miguel M.
000153027 700__ $$aTrigo, Ricardo M.
000153027 700__ $$aEl-Kenawy, Ahmed M.
000153027 700__ $$aEddenjal, Ali
000153027 700__ $$aTürkes, Murat
000153027 700__ $$aKoutroulis, Aristeidis
000153027 700__ $$aManara, Veronica
000153027 700__ $$aMaugeri, Maurizio
000153027 700__ $$aBadi, Wafae
000153027 700__ $$aMathbout, Shifa
000153027 700__ $$aBertalanic, Renato
000153027 700__ $$aBocheva, Lilia
000153027 700__ $$aDabanli, Ismail
000153027 700__ $$aDumitrescu, Alexandru
000153027 700__ $$aDubuisson, Brigitte
000153027 700__ $$aSahabi-Abed, Salah
000153027 700__ $$aAbdulla, Fayez
000153027 700__ $$aFayad, Abbas
000153027 700__ $$aHodzic, Sabina
000153027 700__ $$aIvanov, Mirjana
000153027 700__ $$aRadevski, Ivan
000153027 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-5333-2285$$aPeña-Angulo, Dhais$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000153027 700__ $$aLorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge
000153027 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-3085-7040$$aDomínguez-Castro, Fernando
000153027 700__ $$aGimeno-Sotelo, Luis
000153027 700__ $$aGarcía-Herrera, Ricardo
000153027 700__ $$aFranquesa, Magí
000153027 700__ $$aHalifa-Marín, Amar
000153027 700__ $$aAdell-Michavila, Maria
000153027 700__ $$aNoguera, Ivan
000153027 700__ $$aBarriopedro, David
000153027 700__ $$aGarrido-Perez, Jose M.
000153027 700__ $$aAzorin-Molina, Cesar
000153027 700__ $$aAndres-Martin, Miguel
000153027 700__ $$aGimeno, Luis
000153027 700__ $$aNieto, Raquel
000153027 700__ $$aLlasat, Maria Carmen
000153027 700__ $$aMarkonis, Yannis
000153027 700__ $$aSelmi, Rabeb
000153027 700__ $$aBen Rached, Soumaya
000153027 700__ $$aRadovanovic, Slavica
000153027 700__ $$aSoubeyroux, Jean-Michel
000153027 700__ $$aRibes, Aurélien
000153027 700__ $$aSaidi, Mohamed Elmehdi
000153027 700__ $$aBataineh, Siham
000153027 700__ $$aEl Khalki, El Mahdi
000153027 700__ $$aRobaa, Sayed
000153027 700__ $$aBoucetta, Amina
000153027 700__ $$aAlsafadi, Karam
000153027 700__ $$aMamassis, Nikos
000153027 700__ $$aMohammed, Safwan
000153027 700__ $$aFernández-Duque, Beatriz
000153027 700__ $$aCheval, Sorin
000153027 700__ $$aMoutia, Sara
000153027 700__ $$aStevkov, Aleksandra
000153027 700__ $$aStevkova, Silvana
000153027 700__ $$aLuna, M. Yolanda
000153027 700__ $$aPotopová, Vera
000153027 7102_ $$13006$$2430$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Geografía Física
000153027 773__ $$g639, 8055 (2025), 658-666$$pNature$$tNature$$x0028-0836
000153027 8564_ $$s16748554$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/153027/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000153027 8564_ $$s2811772$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/153027/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000153027 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:153027$$particulos$$pdriver
000153027 951__ $$a2025-10-17-14:32:38
000153027 980__ $$aARTICLE