In itinere infections covertly undermine localized epidemic control in metapopulations

Dilisante, Francesca (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Valgañón, Pablo (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Soriano-Paños, David ; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Resumen: Metapopulation models have traditionally assessed epidemic dynamics by emphasizing local (in situ) interactions within defined subpopulations, often neglecting transmission occurring during mobility phases (in itinere). Here, we extend the Movement–Interaction–Return metapopulation framework to explicitly include contagions acquired during transit, considering agents traveling along shared transportation networks. We reveal that incorporating in itinere contagion entails a notable reduction of the epidemic threshold and a pronounced delocalization of the epidemic trajectory, particularly significant in early-stage outbreaks.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1063/5.0275094

Año: 2025

Publicado en: CHAOS 35, 5 (2025), 051102 [8 pp.]
ISSN: 1054-1500

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/JDC2022-048339-I
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2021-128005NB-C21
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2023-147734NB-I00
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/PID2020-113582GB-I00

Tipo y forma: Artículo (PostPrint)

Área (Departamento): Área Física Materia Condensada (Dpto. Física Materia Condensa.)