Is daily extreme rainfall increasing in the Mediterranean basin? A critical review of the evidence

Gonzalez-Hidalgo, José Carlos (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Beguería, Santiago

Resumen: This article reviews published research on trends in extreme precipitation events across the Mediterranean basin between 1980 and 2025. A total of 175 peer-reviewed studies were compiled using standardized search criteria across major bibliographic databases. The review focuses on reporting the diversity of findings as presented by their authors, while it does not assess the quality of data, methods, or definitions used in individual studies. To avoid misinterpretation, and ensure traceability of our research, key statements regarding trends transcribed directly from each paper's abstract, main text, or conclusions are compiled. The results highlight substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity in reported trends, with few statistically significant and regionally consistent patterns. While in some subregions (particularly parts of Italy, southern France, some areas of Spanish east-coastland and North-Western Africa coastland) localized increases in high-magnitude rainfall events have been found, many areas show either no trend or statistically insignificant changes. The evidence does not support a basin-wide intensification of extreme precipitation, and observed trends appear more strongly influenced by local geographic and synoptic factors, or linked to specific analysis time windows, than by a coherent signal of global climate forcing. These findings underscore the importance of continued observation, high-resolution analysis, and cautious interpretation of regional extremes in a climate change context. A more unified methodological framework is needed to improve comparability across studies and support effective risk management and adaptation strategies in this highly exposed region.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105409

Año: 2026

Publicado en: Earth-Science Reviews 275 (2026), 105409 [17 pp.]
ISSN: 0012-8252

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/E02-17R

Tipo y forma: Article (Published version)

Área (Departamento): Área Geografía Física (Dpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.)