Hindsight effect: What are the actual cash flow timing skills of mutual fund investors?

Muñoz Sanchez, Fernando (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Vicente Reñé, Ruth (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Resumen: This paper analyzes the cash flow timing skills of mutual fund investors, controlling for the hindsight effect (HE). We analyze a sample of US domestic equity mutual funds in the period 1990–2016. Before controlling for the HE, we find that mutual fund investors worsen the return that they achieve with their timing decisions by 1.80% annually. However, after controlling for the HE, the actual prejudice is 0.71% annually. We establish several additional controls obtaining these next results: (i) more sophisticated and informed investors show better timing skills; (ii) the HE is more relevant to less sophisticated investors; (iii) investors wrongly time their exposure to the stock market; and (iv) incubation bias does not significantly affect previous results.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.11.004

Año: 2018

Publicado en: JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL FINANCE 45 (2018), 181-193
ISSN: 0927-5398

Factor impacto JCR: 1.244 (2018)

Categ. JCR: ECONOMICS rank: 178 / 363 = 0.49 (2018) - Q2 - T2
Categ. JCR: BUSINESS, FINANCE rank: 66 / 103 = 0.641 (2018) - Q3 - T2

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 1.072 - Finance (Q1) - Economics and Econometrics (Q1)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/S14-2
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/UZ/CUD2016-SOC-01

Tipo y forma: Article (PostPrint)

Área (Departamento): Área Economía Finan. y Contab. (Dpto. Contabilidad y Finanzas)