Trends in temperature data: Micro-foundations of their nature

Gadea-Rivas, Maria Dolores (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Gonzalo, Jesús ; Ramos, Andrey

Resumen: Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact, and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our micro-founded evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with one structural break. This break can be attributed to a combination of breaks on individual grids and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111992

Año: 2024

Publicado en: Economics Letters 244 (2024), 111992 [6 pp.]
ISSN: 0165-1765

Factor impacto JCR: 1.8 (2024)

Categ. JCR: ECONOMICS rank: 234 / 617 = 0.379 (2024) - Q2 - T2

Factor impacto SCIMAGO: 0.755 - Finance (Q2) - Economics and Econometrics (Q2)

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/CEX2021-001181-M
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2019-104960GB-I00
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MICINN/PID2020-114646RB-C42
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EUR/MICINN/TED2021-129784B-IO0

Tipo y forma: Article (Published version)

Área (Departamento): Área Economía Aplicada (Dpto. Economía Aplicada)