Wind of change for agent decisions and innovation diffusion: The ASPID predictive model for technology adoption

Sáenz-Royo, Carlos (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Hermoso, Ramón (Universidad de Zaragoza) ; Chiclana, Francisco

Resumen: Innovations are part of human evolution and are essential for survival. However, traditional innovation diffusion models do not contemplate the possibility of innovation failure and focus on imitation social processes that require historical data for their estimation, providing only ex-post information, which limits their usefulness for risk management operations. This paper proposes a more general new model (ASPID: AbS-based Predictive Innovation Diffusion model) focusing on the decisions of agents who exhibit intentional limited rationality (IBR). ASPID provides: i) a greater depth of ex-post analysis than the classical models; ii) ex-ante information on the innovation diffusion process based on the characteristics of the target agents, the quality of the innovation, and the network topology of their relationships; iii) the success probability since innovations can fail. The model’s versatility allows it to adapt to any information level, from the most aggregated to the most detailed. Some exante and ex-post examples are presented to support the contribution.

Idioma: Inglés

DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102319

Año: 2025

Publicado en: SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES 102 (2025), 102319 [17 pp.]
ISSN: 0038-0121

Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/AEI/PID2020-113037RB-I00
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/CREVALOR
Financiación: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/T64-23R

Tipo y forma: Article (Published version)

Área (Departamento): Área Organización de Empresas (Dpto. Direcc.Organiza.Empresas)
Área (Departamento): Área Lenguajes y Sistemas Inf. (Dpto. Informát.Ingenie.Sistms.)